We remember and suffer: why the electric vehicles in Russia are not needed. Why electric cars - the dead-end branch of the development of the auto industry forecasts prefer the market reduction

To AK and most similar problems, the low popularity of electrical machines in Russia has not one, but a whole range of reasons. Consider them all in order.

Lack of state support

The experience of countries leading to the use of electric vehicles shows that state support is a key support for the development of this market. States in which the government is interested in the growth of the fleet of electric machines is primarily concerned about ecology issues - reduced carbon and nitrogen oxide emissions, as well as fine solid particles.

A vivid example of such a policy is China, where the popularization of electric vehicles is one of the strategies for improving the environmental situation. Sales of cars with zero exhaust began in the late 2000s, and since 2013 began to grow rapidly. Already in 2015, more than 145 thousand pieces were sold, and the overall fleet at that time amounted to about 225 thousand cars. In 2017, Chinese buyers acquired almost 800 thousand electric vehicles, and growth in comparison from 2016 amounted to 53% - that is, the total number of environmentally friendly machines has already exceeded 1.5 million. And the reason for such rapid growth is precisely in the state stimulation of sales: the government develops a network of charging stations and subsidizes the purchase of electric vehicles, providing them with a competitive price on the total automotive market.

In Russia, at the state level, the development of environmentally friendly transport is long ago, but the real implementation does not even lame, but "lies in the direction of the dream." Round tables, forums and conferences are held annually, and in practice, there is no work on creating a large-scale unified network of electric refills and is not foreseen - almost all the few charged stations are established at the expense of private investors. At the same time, for some time - from 2014 to 2017, zero customs duties were installed on importing electrical stations and other equipment - but then they were canceled, so now the charger is imported on the general basis.

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A similar situation - with the import of electric vehicles themselves. The customs rate for the importation of conventional machines is calculated based on the age and volume of the engine, and another calculation technique is used for electric vehicles: import tax is calculated based on the cost of the machine. Given that new electric cars and so very expensive, the current duty makes them purchase from abroad available only to rich enthusiasts: to those people who are willing to overpay for the desired toy.

In the past, preferential tariffs acted in the past to stimulate demand for cars with zero exhaust. For example, in February 2014, customs rates for electric vehicles were reset - and with interruptions such rules of profitable imports were launched until the fall of 2017. Now in the EAEU countries, which includes Armenia, Belarus, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan and Russia, the zero rate of duty on the import of cars with electric motors no longer applies. To date, the duty on the import of electric vehicles for legal entities is 15%, and if the car's power exceeds 150 horsepower, then for each horsepower it is necessary to pay another 7 dollars of excise (for machines with a capacity of up to 150 horsepower excise, 1 dollar for 1 horsepower ). For individuals duty even above: 48% of the cost of the car.

Against this background, it is very curious that the refusal to reset the duties on electric cars in Russia initiated the Ministry of Industry and Trade: in the department they believe that zero duties for electric vehicles "negatively affect the development of their production in Russia." The decision is not just strange, but literally absurd - in fact, in practice, there is no speech about the production of electrical machines in the country.

A similar situation - with transport tax. In the government, his abolition for electric vehicles was repeatedly raised - but he did not receive any legislative implementation: in the Duma refer to the fact that tax rates can be regulated by local authorities in the regions, and left the right to cancel the tax. How did you decide on the ground? Expected in any way - electric vehicles are too little to pay attention to them, and as a result, the owners of environmentally friendly cars pay tax on the general grounds. And considering the power of many electric cars, it looks like a mocking person: For example, in Moscow for Tesla Model S, depending on the power, you need to give from 45 to 115 thousand rubles annually! The only exception is the Moscow region, where at the end of 2015 Law No. 173/2015-Oz was adopted, which completely canceling the transport tax for any technique equipped with an exclusively electrical engine. Of course, the benefits for cars worth a few million rubles are in some kind of fag, but on the other hand, the main mass of the electric fleet now makes up much cheaper models.

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This is the same, to insufficient government support, and high prices for electric vehicles can be attributed. Such machines are really expensive, but in most countries interested in their popularity, the state offers subsidies for the purchase, compensating for a significant part of the cost. In Russia, such initiatives at the state level are not even discussed - those who want to acquire an electric vehicle can only count on themselves.

Taking into account the high price and the lack of support should not be surprised at low sales results. In China, in 2015, new electric cars were separated by a circulation of 145 thousand, and in Russia, according to the Avtostat agency, 144 were sold for the entire 2018 ... Studs. At the same time, the most popular was the cheapest Nissan LEAF - 76 pieces, followed by Tesla Model X (40 pieces) and Model S (12 pieces).

A little better, the best results demonstrate the secondary market, although it also leads the cheapest. Taking into account the fact that used copies in Japan and the United States are inexpensive, even taking into account the high customs duties, their purchase remains acceptable for the price. However, the volume of such machines imported to Russia every year is calculated by several dozens.

The "history of development" of electric vehicles in Russia is also predictable, although over the past 10 years our market has seen a lot of electrical machines. It is worth mentioning and officially supplied models from large manufacturers, such as Renault and Mitsubishi, and well-known known cars from manufacturers like Tesla, which, for quite understandable reasons, does not even plan an official coming. In addition, we were also offered with small-sector cars, mostly Chinese production - remembers anyone, for example, E-CAR GD04B?

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Such piece demand actually squeezed many electric cars from our market. For example, in 2013, 109 copies of Mitsubishi I-MIEV were sold - and it was the best result, after which the demand fell annually. There is nothing to be surprised: a small, cramped and funny car cost 1.8 million rubles - and then for this money you could buy Mitsubishi Pajero! In 2014, when the customs duties were canceled on the import of electric vehicles, I-MIEV had fallen abruptly up to 1 million rubles - but even this cost was extremely high for a compact machine with a mileage of less than 150 kilometers on one charging, so in 2016 sales were discontinued.

Now there are almost no electric car in the Russian market: officially dealers can only buy Jaguar I-Pace and two models Renault - Twizy and Kangoo Z.E. Everything else is Tesla, Nissan Leaf and so on - is imported by private companies under the order.

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Taking into account all this, it is not surprised that the total fleet of electric cars registered in the country, according to the Avtostat Agency, is slightly more than 3,600 units - just a tiny figure. And we will repeat that 80% of this volume is Nissan Leaf, most of which were imported used from Japan and the United States. About 300 cars are Mitsubishi I-MIEV, and there are two models of Tesla: 200 copies of Model S and a little more than 100 Model X.

Lack of electrical transport support in business

A similar situation with environmentally friendly transport develops not only in the consumer market, but also in the commercial segment. The state does not develop and does not promote any initiatives to popularize electric transport in business and passenger transportation. For example, in China in taxi, such as Caocao, thousands of electric vehicles work - but we have no prerequisites for the electric vehicles become at least a little popular in taxi or minor freight traffic due to the lack of support and lack of charging infrastructure.

Another branch of the development of electric transport is urban passenger transportation: In addition to well-known trolley buses, rechargeable electrobuses with batteries ensuring autonomous strokes have begun to develop. In Russia, there are several industries - in particular, at the KAMAZ plant. However, the oldest and largest manufacturer of trolley buses, Trolza, now actually at death: recently announced the dismissal of more than half of the staff and the upcoming bankruptcy - although it would seem, where, as not at the enterprise with more than half a century experience, it is worth developing the production of such machines. At the same time, in the production line of the plant there are already electrical supplies that have passed certification tests and having comparable with analog items: 50 kilometers of an autonomous run in urban conditions and the possibility of charging in the night, fast and dynamic modes. But in the absence of regular orders and alternative sources of financing, the plant turned out to be powerless - and in fact it is not necessary for anyone.

As a result, the direction of autonomous electric public transport is actually dead: only a few dozen electricians are working in several major cities, and in the plans - an increase in their number to several hundred. For comparison, in China, the electrical works quite successfully replace ordinary diesel buses, and the number of already working machines exceeds 100 thousand! Of course, China is a unique example: the popularity of electric buses here is the fastest in the world, and the largest manufacturer, BYD, delivers their buses to 50 countries, has joint ventures around the world and builds two plants in Europe. But in relation to many other countries, the Russian electricity market does not withstand any comparisons.

Lack of own production of electric vehicles

As mentioned slightly higher, the concerns of the Russian Ministry of Industry and Trade on Competition of Imported Electric Models with those that can be produced in the country, groundless: not a single or at least planned production of cars with zero exhaust in Russia. It is logical to assume that the source of such initiatives could be the largest domestic manufacturer - LADA, however, the company has no plans to develop and produce mass serial electric vehicles.

The most "large" project, which started almost 10 years ago, was actually a failure - speech about Lada Ellada, which was developed since 2010 on the basis of Lada Kalina wagon. The car received the Swiss production electric motor and Chinese lithium-ion batteries, and the maximum stroke reserve on one charge was 150 kilometers. However, the price of the car, which in 2013 finally released a circulation of 100 copies was 1.25 million rubles - that is, 3 times higher than that of the usual gasoline Lada Kalina.

Recall that the idea of \u200b\u200bthe project was to direct most of the cars in a taxi in the Stavropol Territory, while the state should be compensated for by the buyer's company half the cost of each electric vehicle.

However, even this project ended, without starting: only 5 cars were redeemed, and the rest remained at the factory because of the inability to establish the organization of financial flows between local authorities, AvtoVAZ and the state.

EL LADA (1817) "2012-13

Yes, there was also the next step - electric Vesta, on which we traveled in yet. But ... did anyone ever heard of the pilot parties, the running of technology, taxi, state contracts, subsidies, procurement? That and it ...

Of course, all this, including state support and sales, and import, and the production of electric vehicles, can be viewed from another angle: why spend the resources on the fact that anyone does not need? After all, mass electrocars, especially in Russia, will still be a thing of Nicheva - on the convenience of operation, they still have no way beyond the usual machines from the engine. Accordingly, local production should also proceed from demand - and it is quite clear that there is no market prospects for 1.5 million rubles for 1.5 million rubles. However, if you remember alternative examples like the development of domestic microprocessors Baikal (despite the fact that they are created primarily for the defense industry), "Russian iPhones" and recent, one would be at least to meet the statements about the interest in the development of electric transport and take small but real Steps. Including to eliminate the next "source of difficulties" - infrastructure.

No charging infrastructure

The lack of infrastructure of charging stations for electric vehicles is the second most important reason for which electric cars in Russia have neither a real nor the foreseeable future. At the same time, the dialogue between the state, investors and potential customers of refills resembles a swing: people do not want to buy electric cars, because they have nowhere to charge, and the state and the more private investors do not even invest money in the construction of electrical refills due to the small number of potential consumers. The situation is paradoxical - but also people, and business can be understood: no one wants to spend money on something that will not bring any benefit.

The only "engine of progress" in this situation may be a state: without the support of the government, the case is not shifted from the dead point. However, officials actively support the development of electric transport only in words - they do not interfere with the construction of charging stations, but also to provide specific financial support.

In fact, it is about creating a charging infrastructure in the country from scratch: now in the territory of Russia, according to The Boston Consulting Group (BCG), there are about 170 electrical refills. Taking into account even an existing fleet of 3.5 thousand cars and the huge territory of the country, this is a drop in the sea - and there is no long-distance travel here, because even in large cities of charging stations literally dozens, if not units. In addition, there is no, for example, a single online service with current information about the location of refueling, their performance, the number of available connectors and even their type - that is, it is possible that even arriving at the charging station, the car owner will not be able to charge the car from - The incompatibility of the connectors.

The development of the charging infrastructure actually goes at the expense of individual major developers - those that build new areas of megacities and shopping centers. It is here that there are examples when the charging stations are laid at the design stage, and in a new residential area there is a place where you can put an electric car for a night charging, and go to work in the morning. Well, shopping centers are equipped with several charges mostly for the "image" and attracting attention - the number of car owners who will come to charge the car and will go shopping for this time, while negligible to take them into account as one of the generators of profits.

Other reasons

Against the background of the entire cause of the lowest popularity of electric vehicles, one can be considered secondary - however, it is worth mentioning. First, in Russia electric vehicles due to low prevalence still remain transport unusual. Car owners are used to purchasing a car for a long time, relying on key consumer qualities: reliability, availability of service and spare parts, and also, of course, the price. In this situation, the electric machine is "dark horses": reliability due to simplicity seems high, but not yet tested by time, the resource of the most expensive element - high-voltage batteries - it is difficult to predict, and the price of these batteries remains extremely high even on the repair of an ordinary internal engine Combustion (and about the price of the cars themselves, we have already said enough).

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Secondly, electric cars in the Russian operating conditions remain more specific compared to the "ordinary" machines. Large daytime runs and seasonal low temperatures make electrocars attached to the outlet - and these fosels are not enough of these fosels. Subject to the perfectly developed network of charging stations, it would be possible to charge the car during the day - while the owner at work. However, in practice, the scenario is different: it is necessary to plan routes in advance, follow the consumption of energy that goes on the heating of the cabin, take into account the loss of the container due to frosts and so on. As a result, the operation of inexpensive cars like Nissan Leaf is radically different from cars with gasoline or diesel engines - and differences, minus the cost of movement, extremely unpleasant.

The fact is that with the current level of development of science, industry, technologies, create problems much more than decide. So, if the United States completely refuses cars with gasoline or diesel engines, produced by the country of electricity, is simply not enough to charge all electric vehicles. During the night, it will be possible to charge only 79% of vehicles. At the same time, the standard charge of electric vehicles is quite lengthy and takes up to 8 hours, which creates additional inconvenience.

At the same time, 60% of the entire generated energy in the world falls on "dirty" resources - coal, oil, gas. In order to increase the volume of electricity, it is necessary to increase the number of power plants, which means that local pollution near the energy objects will only increase. And yet we must not forget that the dismissal amount of electricity will also be spent on the disposal of its technically complex batteries, and the enterprises themselves themselves will be very "dirty" from their ecological point of view. Trucks at the moment cannot refuse diesel engines - electric traction to bring the car in motion.

Photo DigitalTrends.com.

In addition, it is impossible to forget that the electrocars are not only more expensive than traditional vehicles, but also have a smaller stock of the course, require a special infrastructure for charging batteries - all these factors strongly affect the choice of customers when buying a car. Electric vehicle repair is also a completely new industry. To convince buyers to acquire such a means of movement can be quite difficult, even despite public propaganda and support. And the largest autocontracers controlling the world market today are not ready to completely fall into the arms of "green." After all, for them, the refusal of gasoline threatens with refusal of established schemes for the production, promotion and sales of the car and the need to create a completely new industry - electric car height.

Nevertheless, autocontracens already declare a partial or complete transition to the release of electrocarbers. Or at least declare it. So, Volvo declares that since 2019, all its cars will be equipped with electric motors or hybrid motors instead of gasoline engines. The statement is bold, but unlikely to be implemented not to the detriment of sales. And the fact that it is actually a renewing in favor of the notorious "green" or an attempt to knock out the next state grant, we will see less than a year and a half. However, this will be the problems of one single company. But in an adventure of the electrostropion of the sowing heads the whole powers are thrown!

Photo Icebike.org.

And the pioneer in this area becomes the Netherlands - if GroenLinks, the ecological political party will come to power, the state will completely refuse diesel and gasoline engines. At the same time, the probability of victory in the elections of this particular movement is very high, always used in Europe very popular. Well, to transplant the citizens of one small country, besides, no own auto industry is really now, especially considering the experience of the Dutch in the extraction of alternative energy. But it is curious how transnational transportation will be held in this case: what, in Holland will stop letting "dirty" cars? Hard to believe.

Meanwhile, the readiness to move to electricity is also stated by Norway and Denmark with their own automotive production, where alternative energy is also actively developing. Scandinavia and individual European countries, such as Belgium or Austria, have always been advanced in the field of energy innovation, so move to electric motors in these states of great labor will not be. And for them, the first stage most likely will be a refusal of heavy fuel, that is, from the use of diesel cars in the capitals of large European countries since 2020. Nevertheless, the electrocars can become really popular (and relatively), when the cost of electric vehicles of their charge and repair can compete with gasoline and diesel consumption. And today, even the European Commission - the executive body of the European Union - the tack on electric vehicles!

Photo Icebike.org.

As for Russia, in our wide use, we seem unlikely. Despite public policy, the demand for electrocars is almost zero. At the moment, most cars on electric traction are not able to overcome the distance more than 300 kilometers - this is another cause of their low popularity in our country.

A large problem can be the charging of the batteries - the profitability of ESS in comparison with the gas stations is much lower. The equipment required for the construction and operation of electric filling stations is more expensive than for the functioning of conventional refills. If we take into account the small demand for ESS services, then you can draw conclusions that such projects have quite a long payback period.

Another problem with which the program for the introduction of cars in our country may be faced - this is almost complete monopolism on electricity. This aspect can slow down or even fully electric transport in Russia.

Read more.

The first fall of the market in history

2018

Frost & Sullivan: Two million electric cars sold

According to the international consulting company Frost & Sullivan, in 2018, two million electric cars were sold throughout the world, and by 2025, their sales will increase to 25 million, which is supposed to be 20-22% of all cars.

Bloomberg New Energy Finance: electric vehicles sales - 1.3 million pieces; China accounted for 60%

In 2018, about 1.3 million completely electric cars were sold worldwide (excluding hybrids), and 60% of the volume had to be chosen market. Such data in March 2019 led analysts Bloomberg New Energy Finance.

According to their estimates, the largest manufacturer of electrocars remains Tesla, which in 2018 implemented 245 240 such machines. The top three includes Chinese Beijing Electric Vehicle (BJEV) and BYD. 7 out of 10 companies heading the market, represent the subnet.

The widespread presence of Chinese manufacturers is due to the powerful state support for such companies. According to the Ministry of Industry and Informatization of the PRC, the government spent 6.64 billion yuan in 2017 ($ 1 billion) to stimulate the acquisition by consumers of "green" cars. In addition to the federal government subsidies, Chinese cities and provinces also offer additional incentive programs in order for electric cars more attractive to buyers.

However, the Chinese authorities gradually reduces subsidies, seeking manufacturers to pay more attention to technological improvements to ensure the long-term success of the automotive industry. Within the framework of new standards, which entered into force in 2018, China reduced in varying degrees of subsidy for different models of electric vehicles with a mileage of less than 300 km.

Consumers have become less profitable to buy cheap electrocars, which account for most of BJEV sales, as a result of which foreign manufacturers have the opportunity for expansion to the PRC.

According to Wood Mackenzie estimates, about 3.3% of sales of new cars in China had to be "clean" electric cars in 2018 against 0.7% in 2015. For comparison, the share of such machines in the US market in 2018 was 1.3%. If you take into consideration also hybrid models, then the "green" vehicles ranked 4.5% of the market in China in 2018.

According to the EV Volumes study, in 2018, global sales of electric vehicles amounted to 996,557 pieces, and taking into account the rechargeable hybrids, the number of electrified machines implemented was 2.02 million units. A year earlier such cars were sold 1.3 million copies.

Of the 2 million electrocarbers sold and rechargeable hybrids, approximately half fell on China. The second market in the world became Europe, the third - North America.

Tesla Model 3 became the most popular electric car - it bought 145 thousand people. The Chinese electric car BAIC EC-Series is located in second place, on the third - Nissan Leaf, then there are two other TESLA models - S and X.

EV Volumes calculated that at the end of 2018, the proportion of electrocars and rechargeable hybrids in the sales of all new cars in the world reached 2.1%. Clean electric cars occupied about 1% of the market, respectively. Distribution by country, however, unevenly. For example, in Norway, new electrocars have already occupied almost half of the market, and in Russia their presence is almost unnoticed.

The largest car manufacturers are lagging behind Tesla and Chinese competitors in the electric car market, but build big plans for it. For example, the Volkswagen concern, which in 2018 sold 8 thousand fully electric and hybrid cars in China, expects 400 thousand such machines in 2020, and by 2025 - 1.5 million.

In Bloomberg New Energy Finance, they predict that by 2030, 31% of sales of new cars and 20% of the world fleet will be electrical.

Bloomberg: By 2025, 47% of all buses in the world will be electric

According to Bloomberg New Energy Finance, by 2025, almost half of all buses in the world will be electric. The leader in this regard is China - it will be on it that will have 99% of electricity. One of the first cities where all the buses are electric, the Chinese Shenzhen became about 16.3 thousand urban electricians.

According to the analysts of Bloomberg New Energy Finance (BNEF), by 2025 the number of electric missions will grow more than three times - from 386 thousand. Last year to 1.2 million. Thereby, the electrobes will account for 47% of all buses in the world. As noted in BNEF, electrical structures are still more expensive than buses on diesel fuel or natural gas, but operating costs in their case are lower based on the cost of fuel and technical expenses. In addition, the reduction in the cost of batteries will lead to the fact that by 2026, the electrobuses can be competed with diesel buses. According to BNEF estimates, prices for lithium-ion batteries in 2017 decreased in comparison with the previous year by 24% and were five times lower than in 2010.

Electrical structures attract the attention of the city authorities not only in China, but also around the world. Thus, the authorities of Paris and Amsterdam decided to completely switch to buses with zero levels of harmful emissions to the atmosphere. Last summer, the three first fully electric bus began work in London. One of the European leaders in the spread of electric vehicles is Norway - in 2017, more than half of the car sold in the country were completely electrical or hybrid. In September, Volvo received an order for 25 electric cases from the Norwegian city of Trondheim. In early January, the first electric office was launched in Oslo.

In third place by sales market. It was realized about 200 thousand electrocars, the increase was 27%. Also, high growth in sales of electric vehicles and hybrids is noted in Japan - by 149% to 56 thousand pieces. This success of the Japanese managed to achieve the release of the new Nissan Leaf and Toyota Prius Prime Phev, which instantly won the "green" car market, noted by researchers.

The sale of electrocars and rechargeable hybrids in December has greatly grown. In just the last month of 2017, over 170 thousand such cars were implemented in the world, and their market share was 2%.

The PWC experts presented another overview of the Russian market for new cars following the first half of the current year and, as always, shared the forecasts of its development. Separately, they looked at the electric vehicle market and gave a more favorable forecast for its development.

In January - June 2019, sales of new cars in Russia, according to PwC, reached 775 thousand units, decreasing by 1.9% compared to the same period in 2018, when 790 thousand such cars were sold.

Sales of Russian automakers rose by 2.7% compared with the 1st half of 2018. The increase, the PWC experts are noted, was provided by the sales of LADA (3%), while the UAZ models demonstrated the inverse dynamics (-8% to the results of six months of 2018), but retaining the market share at 1%.

Russian-made foreign cars remain the largest market segment, which accounts for more than 60% of all sales of new passenger cars. In the 1st half of 2019, sales in this segment decreased by 5%, thereby affecting the overall dynamics of the market for new passenger cars. The reason for the fall in demand, the authors of the review are believed, the cost of cars in the segment of almost 10% is considered.

In January - June 2019, in total sales, the share of imports has slightly increased and amounted to about 17% against 16% in the same period of 2018. At the same time, the PWC experts are noticed, the segment traditionally showed the increase in the above-total - 20% in ruble expression and about 4 % in quantitative. The cost of imported foreign cars increased by only 3% compared with 2018.

In monetary terms, the market demonstrated an increase both in ruble and in dollar terms, while in the ruble equivalent it increased more (8% against 6%) due to the strengthening of the ruble and the growth of the average cost of new cars in six months of 2019 compared With the first half of 2018

Forecasts prefer market reduction

According to the PWC analysts forecast, in 2019, sales of new cars in Russia can grow by 0.5% and reach 1.68 million units in an optimistic scenario. The basic forecast is expected to reduce sales at 2%, and they will reach 1.64 million units. For the 1st half of the year, the basic scenario was relevant (decrease by 1.9%). Its implementation, the authors of the review are logical, will depend mainly from the macroeconomic conjuncture.

But it is worth noting that it is already possible to estimate which of the scenarios considered by the PWC experts is more realistic at the end of 2019, resorting to the data committee of the Association of European Businesses. Its statistics of the car market for today covers the period in August of the current year, that is, two months closer to the finish of the latter.

At the same time, it is necessary to recall that the data of the Committee of automakers AEB takes into account the sales of not only new passenger cars, but also easy commercial vehicles, so it is impossible to expect an ideal coincidence with PWC statistics neither by the number of sales or annual dynamics up to tenths. However, for the overall assessment of the development of the market, it is possible to rely on them completely.

So, according to AEB, in January-August 2019, the market of new passenger and light commercial vehicles in Russia decreased in an annual dimension by 2.3%. This is 0.1 pp. It is better in the first time, but it seems not to expect a radical improvement - market growth - by the end of the year.

It is also necessary to remind the words of the Deputy Chairman of the Committee of automakers AEB Lars Himmer, who, according to the results of January - July, noting the decline in the annual dynamics of the car sales, as well as in half year, by 2.4%, noticed: "In general, market expectations do not improve by the end of the year." .

In his review, PWC experts call the following factors that can slow sales growth in 2019:

rising prices as a result of increasing VAT from 18 to 20%;

the deterioration of the macroeconomic situation and an increase in the volatility of the national currency in the event of introducing new sanctions;

reducing state support of the automotive industry.

Factors that will contribute to sales growth in 2019, according to PWC experts, are as follows:

market transition to the stage of natural growth in the absence of external shocks, the devaluation of national currency and sanctions;

It is also believed that the introduction of a new investment regime providing for the provision of benefits and subsidies in exchange for investments in the location of production (a special investment contract - SPIK) will have a significant impact on the development of the market in Russia. As of July 2019, SPIK 1.0 signed AvtoVAZ - Renault - Nissan - Mitsubishi, Hyundai, GAZ, Daimler, Sollers, etc.

From August 2, 2019, a speaker 2.0 entered into force, providing for a change in the mechanism of providing benefits and subsidies.

The further development of the market will be determined by the automakers strategy under the transition conditions to a new investment mode, indicate analysts.

According to the PWC forecast to 2025, inclusive, the average annual increase in the Russian market of new cars will be about 7% and six years will reach 2.47 million units. Thus, in 2025, this market in physical terms will give way to the maximum size achieved in 2012 (2.76 million units) - about 290 thousand cars, or 10.5%.

It should be noted that the change of the vector of the automotive car market this year with growth in the decline is pretty lowered optimism of forecasts of PWC experts in several years. So, according to the results of 2017, when the sales of cars were even higher than preliminary expert assessments, they improved their forecast for 2021 from 1.88 million cars up to 2.12 million, now their expectation of the market volume in the named year is 1, 93 million pieces - 9% less.

We will also note the extension of the market forecasting the PWC analysts to six years. This is due to the fact that the development strategy of the automotive industry of Russia, adopted in February 2018, is designed just until 2025.

In electric cars in the market "Own track"

An individual chapter in his review was dedicated to electric vehicles and proposed three scenarios for the development of their market in Russia:

in a pessimistic scenario, they suggest the slow rates of infrastructure development and limited state support;

in an optimistic scenario, it is assumed that the government will actively use international experience in other countries and introduce similar incentives in Russia.

According to the results of the seven months of 2019, the market of electric vehicles in Russia reached the volume in 1914 pcs. (188 new and 1726 used), which, emphasize PWC experts, is already about 80% of the optimistic forecast for 2019.

At the same time, they note, a significant increase in state support measures did not occur, and in the event of their active implementation, it can be expected to preserve the current growth rates.

According to the results of 2018, 2383 pcs were sold in Russia. Electric vehicles (new and used). In total sales of new passenger cars, the share of electric vehicles was 0.14% by results of the year.

At the same time they prevail (more than 94% of cars sold) used cars, sales of which fall on the Primorsky and Khabarovsk Territory, as well as the Irkutsk region. Most (40%) of new electric vehicles are sold in Moscow and the Moscow region.

According to the PWC forecast, the total sales of electric vehicles in Russia will grow with an average annual growth rate of up to 30%, and in Moscow - up to 60% in the period 2018-2025, which is equivalent to sales growth from 2.4 thousand to 14.9 thousand. PC. throughout the territory of the Russian Federation.

In the future, the growth of electric vehicles, PWC experts, will be due to the following factors:

active support for sales of electric vehicles by the state;

development of infrastructure;

reducing the cost of the battery and adapting its operating modes to the Russian climate.

Sales in Russia of new cars in January - June 2019

In recent years, an explicit trend on electrification has emerged in the automotive industry. Almost all global manufacturers plans to release new cars, which will be driven by electrical power plants.

Moreover, according to numerous experts, the future of electric vehicles. That is, in the coming years, more and more cars with zero emissions of harmful substances will begin to appear on the roads, which, according to predictions and forecasts, should eventually fully displace cars from the engine.

However, there is a "other side of this medal." Let's try to figure out and understand, electric cars are utopia or on the contrary progress. We certainly do not mind such a type of vehicles. But, currently, the idea of \u200b\u200bglobal electrification of the automotive industry, at least, looks not so irrevocated.

For example. Ask yourself the question why the French company Renault has stopped the release of the electric vehicle Fluence Z.e. The main reason is not enough consumer demand for the machine with an electrical power installation. Moreover, I mischieving a bit in a situation, we found at least a few more reasons, because of which electric vehicles in the near future will not become nor popular or profitable.

Before specifying, we note that even the Americans who became the discovers of the mass introduction of electrocars, gradually began to lose interest in such machines. It is taken "not from the sky." Thus, the Ministry of Energy of the United States of America believes that by 2040 electric cars in the country will be no more than 1% of the automotive market. Previously, this forecast was significantly "worse."

Ecology is not the problem of the automotive industry at all.

Could over cities

It is no secret that every year humanity, in the literal sense of the word, nightmare various pictures, whose main character was able to be over industrially developed megalopolis. It is noted that this situation consists of a huge fleet. Yes, there is a part of the truth in this, but only part.

Numerous profile specialists note that it is not least that industrial enterprises are not least. In turn, the hard environmental policy in this area may lead to the fact that GDP will begin in the states with all the consequences that arise from here.

That is, if "social and starving riots" will begin with "ecological warrior", you agree, to the ecology itself everything will be frankly "noting." Simply put, we simply switch from one problem to another, "descending all dogs" on the automotive industry.

And if so much electricity in humanity

Fukushima nuclear power plant

The global electrification of the automotive industry makes you think about the same question as "and whether we have so much electricity." Perhaps that at present, atomic energy is currently becoming a more efficient way. But let's remember Chernobyl and Fukushima.

At the same time, the adherents of total automotive electrification claim that most of the planets are breathing with exhaust gases that emit machines from an internal combustion engine, which leads to a pulmonary disease, poisoning, and so on.

So if at present, humanity did not find the perfect way to produce a huge amount of energy, let everything be left as it is?! After all, you agree, the usual hydroelectric power plants can be built far from everywhere, and there are issues of issues with the environmental component. And how many then need to be built to have enough for all our needs!?

Hour of memory for school students dedicated to the Day of the Chernobyl tragedy

There are still "progressive" solar panels and windmills, but they are known to do not pay off. Among other things, it also arises the problem of recycling worked out its designs. Thus, according to the world media, the issue of utilization of such sources of energy is not less acute than utilization of spent nuclear fuel.

The current power plants, the source of the production of electrical energy of which is liquid or solid fuel, again adversely affect the environment, and not so effective. Of course, we will make another amendment, we silent about that harm that brings our planet production and use more familiar fuels for automotive industry.

No infrastructure

Charging stations for electric vehicles Tesla

The lack of infrastructure for the use of electrified vehicles is another "plus to the basket" of this vehicle. Yes, what is there to speak, because of this, there are no proper sales volumes of existing electrocars. Well, tell me why a person buy a car that has nowhere to charge?!

Moreover, another question arises: the time you need to charge the batteries of the electrocarbers. Yes, global manufacturers are actively working on this issue, but not yet everything is so good as it would like. If you shortly specify, then at the moment the infrastructure under the use of electrocars on a global scale is simply not. But, again, make a correction to the fact that in the future this situation may have to change.

Payback and price

Photo: jaguar

Perhaps that we start from the second and third. No matter how hard global manufacturers are trying until the price of the electric vehicle is high enough. This, in turn, as well as a poorly developed infrastructure, leads to the fact that the electric vehicle cannot quickly pay off. As previously calculated British analysts, even the most affordable electric vehicle with all its advantages is capable of making attachments, at best, five years old. At the same time, cars with internal circulation pay off through three.

Reliability

Renault Fluence Z.e.

Imagine that the company sells you a new car, which is able to run without enough serious intervention about 120 thousand kilometers?! According to research, the main driving element of the electric vehicle is the battery - prone to rapid aging. And this is, first of all, again associated with technological problems.